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Mooly's Ladderwars predictions !

By moolyftw - 3rd April 2017 - 19:46 PM

As I didn't qualify for this months Ladderwars I will likely put more effort than last time into commentating the games and as I know the game and players much better now I think I have quite a decent idea of how this event will go.

Round 1, Match 1 - ZertoN vs AoL_RecoN
AoL_RecoN has said that he plans to play Lightbringers (L) throughout this tournament to prove that they are not as bad as some in the community say. Unfortunately he has met ZertoN, last months champion with a win/lose of 9/2 and arguably the best player in 8-Bit right now, in the first round.
RecoN is also considered a top, top player but if he decides to continue with his challenge to prove the power of L this will be a ZertoN favoured match up, which could be close, but having not seen much of RecoN's play during my time I wouldn't bet on it.

ZertoN 3-1 RecoN

Round 1, Match 2 - DissoNant vs TigerStyle
DissoNant has been a Gaurdians (G) player for a long while but has recently switched to Cranioids and is going up against TigerStyle who is mainly a Deathsworn (D) and C player. D is the race I know the least about as few players play it at a high level but TigerStyle is a top, top player who I would feel confident backing against DissoNant in a C vs C. I'll give DissoNant a possible game but with both players strong in two factions I would give a pretty clean (possible sweep) to Tiger.

TigerStyle 3-1 DissoNant

Round 1, Match 3 - ProvenSupreme vs Netput
ProvenSupreme vs Netput is probably the weakest overall match in the first round of this tournament. I'd give Netput an advantage as a player who sticks with Marines (M) while Proven is known to play random in these tournaments but Proven has a good record vs M with most of his races.
This match up is also a rematch from the February season of Ladderwars where Proven went 3-2 over Netput. This match up could rely on Proven's random RNG and has the chance to be the closet match up of the first round but I think Proven could take this match up safer with a good selection of factions.

ProvenSupreme 3-2 Netput

Round 1, Match 4 - Trolerkules vs TarNation

TarNation plays this game in a way that I do not understand and that is, I believe, mathematically inefficient. However he is still a strong player and his style of rushing Gorgons has a chance of working against Trolerkules' G. GvM however, is a G favoured match up and Trolerkules is one of the other possibilities for best player in 8-Bit at the moment, so I wouldn't expect it to work more than once.

Trolerkules 3-1 TarNation

Semifinals 1 - ZertoN vs TigerStyle
In last seasons Ladderwars, Tigerstyle was dropped 3-1 by JustPlainSavage's Renegades and then ZertoN clean sweeped JustPlainSavage in a RvR mirror. This would suggest that ZertoN is the stronger R player and would have an even easier time vs TigerStyle however ZertoN and JustPlainSavage are very different types of R players, JustPlainSavage playing with an aggressive tank rush in every game, while ZertoN plays a far more late game, chopper focused style.
While I do think that ZetoN's style should be safer and better overall it was clear that TigerStyle had particular problems with defending the Tank rush and may be more confident in a longer game vs a more common style of R. I could see a sweep from ZertoN but I'd feel safe giving TigerStyle at least a game.

ZertoN 3-1 TigerStyle

Semifinals 2 - ProvenSupreme vs Trolerkules
Trolerkules has a very strong and confident late game G play and as normal I believe a mastery of one race is better than a strong play with your faction randomly selected. I think Proven could defiantly take a game but I would be confident to say that Trolerkules will likely win this match.

Trolerkules 3-0 ProvenSupreme

Finals - ZertoN vs Trolerkules
This is the finals I think everyone is hoping for (except ZertoN who wants to play Proven and will likely be cheering him on to beat Trolerkules) and if ZertoN is to be believed it will be a 3-0 to Trolerkules because G is a broken piece of shit that R cannot beat (even tho he beat iBaWs' G twice in the finals of last season). I do see the argument that GvR at a high level is a G favoured match up and that Trolerkules is a stronger player than iBaWs, but I'm not as pessimistic as ZertoN and believe this will be a really fun and probably close match.

Trolerkules 4-3 ZertoN