As I didn't qualify for this months Ladderwars I will likely put more effort than last time into commentating the games and as I know the game and players much better now I think I have quite a decent idea of how this event will go.
Round 1, Match 1 - ZertoN vs AoL_RecoN
AoL_RecoN has said that he plans to play Lightbringers (L) throughout this tournament to prove that they are not as bad as some in the community say. Unfortunately he has met ZertoN, last months champion with a win/lose of 9/2 and arguably the best player in 8-Bit right now, in the first round.
RecoN is also considered a top, top player but if he decides to continue with his challenge to prove the power of L this will be a ZertoN favoured match up, which could be close, but having not seen much of RecoN's play during my time I wouldn't bet on it.
ZertoN 3-1 RecoN
Round 1, Match 2 - DissoNant vs TigerStyle
DissoNant has been a Gaurdians (G) player for a long while but has recently switched to Cranioids © and is going up against TigerStyle who is mainly a Deathsworn (D) and C player. D is the race I know the least about as few players play it at a high level but TigerStyle is a top, top player who I would feel confident backing against DissoNant in a C vs C. I'll give DissoNant a possible game but with both players strong in two factions I would give a pretty clean (possible sweep) to Tiger.
TigerStyle 3-1 DissoNant
Round 1, Match 3 - ProvenSupreme vs Netput
ProvenSupreme vs Netput is probably the weakest overall match in the first round of this tournament. I'd give Netput an advantage as a player who sticks with Marines (M) while Proven is known to play random in these tournaments but Proven has a good record vs M with most of his races.
This match up is also a rematch from the February season of Ladderwars where Proven went 3-2 over Netput. This match up could rely on Proven's random RNG and has the chance to be the closet match up of the first round but I think Proven could take this match up safer with a good selection of factions.
ProvenSupreme 3-2 Netput
Round 1, Match 4 - Trolerkules vs TarNation
TarNation plays this game in a way that I do not understand and that is, I believe, mathematically inefficient. However he is still a strong player and his style of rushing Gorgons has a chance of working against Trolerkules' G. GvM however, is a G favoured match up and Trolerkules is one of the other possibilities for best player in 8-Bit at the moment, so I wouldn't expect it to work more than once.
Trolerkules 3-1 TarNation
Semifinals 1 - ZertoN vs TigerStyle
In last seasons Ladderwars, Tigerstyle was dropped 3-1 by JustPlainSavage's Renegades ® and then ZertoN clean sweeped JustPlainSavage in a RvR mirror. This would suggest that ZertoN is the stronger R player and would have an even easier time vs TigerStyle however ZertoN and JustPlainSavage are very different types of R players, JustPlainSavage playing with an aggressive tank rush in every game, while ZertoN plays a far more late game, chopper focused style.
While I do think that ZetoN's style should be safer and better overall it was clear that TigerStyle had particular problems with defending the Tank rush and may be more confident in a longer game vs a more common style of R. I could see a sweep from ZertoN but I'd feel safe giving TigerStyle at least a game.
ZertoN 3-1 TigerStyle
Semifinals 2 - ProvenSupreme vs Trolerkules
Trolerkules has a very strong and confident late game G play and as normal I believe a mastery of one race is better than a strong play with your faction randomly selected. I think Proven could defiantly take a game but I would be confident to say that Trolerkules will likely win this match.
Trolerkules 3-0 ProvenSupreme
Finals - ZertoN vs Trolerkules
This is the finals I think everyone is hoping for (except ZertoN who wants to play Proven and will likely be cheering him on to beat Trolerkules) and if ZertoN is to be believed it will be a 3-0 to Trolerkules because G is a broken piece of shit that R cannot beat (even tho he beat iBaWs' G twice in the finals of last season). I do see the argument that GvR at a high level is a G favoured match up and that Trolerkules is a stronger player than iBaWs, but I'm not as pessimistic as ZertoN and believe this will be a really fun and probably close match.
Trolerkules 4-3 ZertoN
Don't underestimate Recon, even if he is LB.
I'm also NOT planning to play Random this time around.
I'll adjust based on map.
You guys realize I am going to win this series right?
[Update] as requested be user Askavenger
I underestimated Tarnation in my original predictions. At the time I had only seen Tarnation play Marines, I didn’t understand the power of one of his Harpy builds and I didn’t respect the power of his more standard builds. Even then the Harpy build which since then I’ve started to understand didn’t work vs Carnage’s G and he didn’t even try to take it to a late game I still think his standard build is bad vs a good armies player. The main problem in my analysis however is that I had only seen these Marines builds and didn’t know how good he was at other races and how confident he would be pulling them out.
Tarnation ended up winning with some very confident L and C play neither of which I had seen him play and both are good matchups vs armies. Which puts him against ProvenSupreme in the next round.
ProvenSupreme vs Tarnation
This is an interesting matchup in my opinion, both players are very open in the races that they play and so it is hard to predict any direct matchups in terms of balance. They also matchup quite similar stylistically, I think Proven’s main weakness is his lack of multitasking and activeness with his units but Tarnation is also quite fond of more of a powerful united push style and these might match up well. However Tarnation can play these more multitasking heavy styles as he showed in game 2 vs Carnage and as he has shown in a lot of his harpy play.
This I think will be the main advantage that Tarnation has over Proven and although the strength of both players and variety of factions they will choose means this could be a volatile matchup I would expect Tarnation to take a victory due to his mix of multi tasking harras, cheesy rush builds and clean macro play.
Proven 1 - 3 Tarnation
Tarnation vs Zerton
This will also be an interesting matchup. If he played Marines like I originally expected he would I would give him may a game vs Zerton however now that I’ve seen him play better with stronger anti armies factions I could see this being a close series especially with Tarnations willingness to rush. Zerton’s traditional style would not be safe vs one of tarnations rushes but Zerton definitely can play a stronger early game style and the consistency of mastery of one race is a stable option which might avoid some of the less practiced builds that Tarnation could pull out.
I think this will be a close matchup and I’m going to take what I think is still the safe bet so far and say I expect Zerton to win although I could well see this go either way
Zerton 4 - 3 Tarnation
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